Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
