🔗 Share this article

It was two months ago that Morgan Rogers stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed while Unai Emery berated him over not reading a penetrating pass. During that period, as Villa went six without a win, it wasn't clear if his performances were a sign or the reason for the side's more general malaise.

“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”

On Sunday, in contrast, the sideline response was much more joyous. When the in-form star swept in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician discarded his winter coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa marched on to ten wins in a row and after failing to win their opening six matches, are somehow only three points behind the leaders Arsenal.

Is This Team Legitimate Hopefuls?

That’s an exceptionally difficult question to resolve. History, a general sense of the club, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, their performances haven't been wholly dominant this season, even as the victories have stacked up.

As per statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the team had an expected goals figure notably superior than the other team. For a team that have put together ten consecutive victories, the Villans seem weirdly vulnerable – however at the moment the fine lines are falling their way.

The Reliant Strategy

The prevailing tactic seems to be to trade blows with an opponent before hoping their star man to rescue them with some clinical strikes. This was the case against Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and once more against the Red Devils.

Rogers' first goal stemmed from a superb shot, curled precisely inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. For his second acted as a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he seized on a pass from Watkins.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

Can It Last?

Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opponents registered more efforts and more efforts on goal. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those games.

Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent the club will encounter over the coming weeks. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot keep on blasting the ball past despairing goalkeepers forever.

Potential for Growth

Perhaps there is another reality in which, instead of results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs could still find their top level.

• The centre-forward could start scoring again.
• The winger might become the performer he showed in Germany.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually come back from the treatment room, bolstering a sometimes shaky defensive unit.

Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a genuine bid, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.

Relishing the Unlikely

However, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely two months ago, nobody thought Rogers as the year closed would be spearheading a title charge while looking like an essential England player.

The current run is to be savoured precisely because it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner positioned himself before the North End at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he seemed to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. These spells are rare in football and must be appreciated.