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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a peace deal developed with US officials are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives are expected to submit the terms to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the conflict remains uncertain, particularly because the Russian lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy said that the US Congress was anticipated to vote on security guarantees and that a complete package of agreements could be prepared “imminently.” He added that, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Moscow, leading to high-level meetings as soon as this weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five documents. Several pertain to security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, approved and endorsed by the United States Congress,” the president remarked to journalists. He stated that these guarantees would “mirror article 5” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, US officials declined to give specific details regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or what would happen if Moscow attempted to seize more land after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European nations said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting safer seas, potentially by conducting operations within Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these measures would serve as guarantees equivalent to Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Russia is anywhere close to accepting the kind of arrangement being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Kremlin said it had not received the details of the proposals on security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that Russia would not agree to troops from NATO member states being stationed in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators remains the issue of land. One proposal centers on Ukraine ceding the areas of the Donbas it still holds, while Ukraine wants to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. You know, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy said following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russia would not move forward, with the demilitarised area becoming “an open economic area.” Russia has indicated it could use internal security formations rather than the army in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ is not under the control of Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Absolutely,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the land question. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a compromise solution like a special economic area could be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the plans are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face precisely the situation we are experiencing on our flight right now – turbulence,” said Zelenskyy, making the statement after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply additional armaments if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the United States,” he concluded.