Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are released from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely provided by partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly becomes sober acceptance: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from US leadership adheres to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership functions according to a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but avoiding a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.
