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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward formula. It frequently functions as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the largest improvement receives the prize. However, it sparks an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring superior leadership or simply the most shocking shock.

Yet the latest competition is fundamentally unique. The group of candidates is exceptionally strong. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners declining and recent underperformers ascending collectively. During an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in this chaotic and fun season, he's competing with several other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper system, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his special ability. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers consistently. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been capable to create big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the organization with the level of pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme genius but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

In a ordinary season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current is not a typical year!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term success. However Johnson falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has nailed the leadership stuff, which was not a certainty after his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

After an initial strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the team stumbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still